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Alibaba Stock Forecast: 2021 and Beyond

Alibaba is often referred to as the “Amazon of China”. Alibaba has more products than just the web store. In 2019, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd grew into one of China’s largest groups of companies, with significant global influence. It first gained control of the Chinese e-commerce market. In 2019, its “Tmall” was among the leading three Chinese e-commerce retailers, including JD.com and Pinduoduo, with a reported 80% of online retail sales in China running through the company.

Alibaba offers a range of products for brands looking to compete in the e-commerce market. The company’s main business segments include mobile media and entertainment, cloud computing, core commerce, and other initiatives. The E-commerce giant is currently not included in the U.S. stock market index, S&P 500 stock index, or the Nasdaq 100 stock index.  Are you interested in investing and trading Alibaba stocks? In this article, we discuss the direction the Alibaba forecast could go and make a price prediction for many years to come.

The article covers the following subjects:

About Alibaba 

Ma Yun, better known as Jack Ma, launched Alibaba.com (the first product) in 1999. The company entered the stock exchange in September 2014. As was mentioned in the introduction, neither S&P 500 nor Nasdaq 100 are an Alibaba stock index. The company is, however, listed on other respectable indices. One Alibaba index is ARCA Institutional (USA). A second Alibaba index is CSI Overseas Mainland Enterprises (Hong Kong). A third Alibaba index we should note is NYSE Composite (USA).

The Alibaba Group mainly includes:

  • Alibaba.com (including 1688.com and AliExpress.com): mainly business to business e-commerce
  • Taobao.com: similar to Amazon/eBay: business to consumer or consumer to consumer
  • Tmall.com: A platform for local Chinese and international businesses to sell brand name goods to consumers in Greater China; large multinational brands (e.g., Apple, Nike) for the Chinese middle class.

The company is the most significant e-commerce player in China (with more than 50% market share). Like Amazon, it is also involved in many other things such as IT infrastructure, cloud computing, and media and entertainment (including films and “YouTube variant” Youku). It invests in a whole range of listed and unlisted companies. Every quarter, gains or losses are booked on investments in listed companies (Alibaba invests, among others, Bilibili (sort of like YouTube), Lyft (Uber competitor), and Weibo (social network)), which makes the results more volatile.

The Chinese government recently fined Alibaba marketplace for monopolistic practices for 18.2 billion yuan ($2.8 billion), accounting for 4% of sales in China in 2019.  Alibaba prevented customers from offering their goods on competing platforms. The company will now take steps to ensure fair competition.

Factors That May Impact Alibaba 

Various factors may affect BABA stocks. Below are four fundamental factors that any BABA trader or investor should analyze.

1. International Markets

The first challenge to Alibaba’s future, of course, is its ability to develop in markets other than China. The group has already achieved a good reputation in its country of origin, but it also has all the necessary assets for conquering the world market.

Alibaba already has a strong presence in Southeast Asia through the e-commerce platform Lazada. And over the last several years, the company has been making steps forward – a distribution center in Belgium, an AliExpress store in Spain, and a campaign with 100,000 content creators to promote its services to the European market. Some of the potentially profitable markets include Latin America and Africa. 

But differences in policy and perception toward data make it harder to expand globally, especially in Western Europe and the USA. 

2. Competitors

Of course, Alibaba also has to face specific threats, including the significant development potential of some competitors. Besides, the Indian market, which is considered a priority by Alibaba, already has two substantial competitors with a solid reputation with Amazon and Flipkart. In reality, it will take Alibaba time to learn about these two companies that have been operating in the country for some time. Globally, Alibaba has been facing increasingly fierce competition in recent years, with several large groups such as eBay, Amazon, JD, and Tencent posing severe threats.

3. Government Regulations

As we saw above, it’s wise to consider the Chinese government’s regulations before taking up your investing or trading position. Judging from its previous price history, we can say that negative news can impact Alibaba’s value, such as the monopoly scandal that resulted in a record fine of $2.8 billion.

At the same time, in Alibaba stock projections, we can’t disregard the fact that Alibaba already established a special task force. It consists of leaders from its relevant business units who work together to review compliance.

4. Demand for New Services

The strong demand for new services available on other e-commerce platforms significantly reduces profitability for Alibaba. This can cause a loss of investor interest in this stock.

To address the issue, Alibaba implemented new financing and freight-shipping services for SMEs. Boosting small-business sales is the current trend in Alibaba’s stated goal in the USA and has been so for quite a while. The good news is that Alibaba’s growth has been the most significant in the US market in the past year.

  

Alibaba Stock Price Prediction for 2021 by Experts

At the end of March 2021, Macquarie Bank analysts reissued their outperform rating on the Alibaba stock, although they reduced their target price to $407 per share from $421 previously. They also revised their 2021 earnings estimates for Alibaba but noted that “the stock is at good risk/reward.”

Online stock forecasting service Wallet Investor is bullish in its Alibaba stock price prediction for 2021 and beyond, estimating on April 18, 2021, that the future price would climb from its mid-April mark of $226 per share to $275.95 by December 2021, $337.11 per share by December 2022, and $524.82 by December 2023.

Based on analyst recommendations offering 12-month BABA stock price targets in the last three months, the average stock price target is $311.85 with a maximum value of $338 and a minimum estimate of $260. 

In particular, in April, the stock received a “Strong Buy” rating from Youssef Squali from Truist Securities, Aaron Kessler from Raymond James, Hans Chung from KeyBanc, Alicia Yap from Citigroup, and Gary Yu from Morgan Stanley. 

Alibaba stock Technical Analysis

The Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) technical analysis shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the long term. A rising trend indicates that the company experiences positive development and that buying interest among investors is increasing. The stock has support at 205 US dollars and resistance level at 316 USD. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the long-term growth, which is a good Alibaba stock outlook.

Source: Investtech technical analysis, data as of 16.04.2021

BABA Stock Forecast for 2022

Below is an Alibaba stock prediction graph for 2022. Please remember that a 12-month forecast is very approximate and is subject to change at any time.

Year

Mo

Min

Max

Closing price

Mo,%

Total%

2022

Jan

186

210

198

2.6%

-11.6%

2022

Feb

196

220

208

5.1%

-7.1%

2022

Mar

205

231

218

4.8%

-2.7%

2022

Apr

213

241

227

4.1%

1.3%

2022

May

218

246

232

2.2%

3.6%

2022

Jun

227

257

242

4.3%

8.0%

2022

Jul

216

244

230

-5.0%

2.7%

2022

Aug

218

246

232

0.9%

3.6%

2022

Sep

212

240

226

-2.6%

0.9%

2022

Oct

223

251

237

4.9%

5.8%

2022

Nov

234

264

249

5.1%

11.2%

Source: Longforecast.com (Alibaba forecast)

Alibaba Share Forecast for 2023

Next, we have listed the Alibaba share price forecast table for the first four months of 2023. Please keep in mind that any long-term price prediction is often unreliable and is helpful for analysis. Trading and investing do not equal fast money.

Year

Mo

Min

Max

Closing price

Mo,%

Total%

2023

Jan

234

264

249

-4.6%

11.2%

2023

Feb

237

267

252

1.2%

12.5%

2023

Mar

242

272

257

2.0%

14.7%

2023

Apr

254

286

270

5.1%

20.5%

Source: Longforecast.com (Alibaba forecast)

Long Term Alibaba Stock Forecast 2025-2030

In this period, the projected stock price of Alibaba is expected to rise. BABA will trade at $518 by mid-2025, then soar to a value of $699 within the first half of the year of 2028, and finish 2030 at $781. Please remember that such a long-term Alibaba stock price projection is speculation, cannot be seen as realistic, and is subject to change on a daily basis. Below is an Alibaba stock price prediction for the period 2025-2030:

Year

Mid-Year

Year-End

Tod/End,%

2025

$518

$565

+137%

2026

$584

$628

+163%

2027

$671

$685

+187%

2028

$699

$714

+199%

2029

$730

$746

+213%

2030

$763

$781

+227%

Source: Coinpriceforecast.com

How Did the Price of Alibaba Change Over Time?

The current price of BABA stocks on 25.05.2021 is  $210.07.

We can’t predict with certainty what the BABA stock price will be in the next 10 years, but we can look back at the Alibaba historical trends. This can help us make more reliable BABA predictions. Below is a historical timeline that shows how the price of the BABA stock changed over the past 5 years. Notice how the pandemic and the “monopoly situation” negatively affected the Alibaba stock performance at the end of the timeline. 

What Is the Future of the Alibaba Stock Price? Is Alibaba Still a Good Investment?

Alibaba shares are currently both a good short-term trade and potentially a profitable investment. Keep in mind that there is pressure on the company – the Chinese government recently called Alibaba on the mat because of several developments at the company. The rate of Alibaba may respond to this. Below is a BABA stock forecast chart for 2021:

Year

Mo

Min

Max

Closing price

Mo,%

Total%

2021

Apr

212

246

226

0.9%

0.9%

2021

May

214

242

228

0.9%

1.8%

2021

Jun

204

230

217

-4.8%

-3.1%

2021

Jul

194

218

206

-5.1%

-8.0%

2021

Aug

203

229

216

4.9%

-3.6%

2021

Sep

193

217

205

-5.1%

-8.5%

2021

Oct

183

207

195

-4.9%

-12.9%

2021

Nov

175

197

186

-4.6%

-17.0%

2021

Dec

181

205

193

3.8%

-13.8%

Source: Longforecast.com 

After Alibaba opened distribution centers worldwide, the Chinese government thought it was time to speak with Alibaba after launching a program against monopolies. In that context, Alibaba received an invitation to come and talk about this. The Chinese government would like Alibaba to apply several rules. For example, the sellers on the platform are not allowed to offer their products to other online stores.

The Chinese government also wants more financial supervision of the entire situation around Alibaba. It remains to be seen to what extent the requirements of the Chinese government will adjust Alibaba’s business operations and whether it will have a significant effect on the outlook on Alibaba shares.

Keep a close eye on the news about the interventions of the Chinese government in this company. The rules imposed may have far-reaching consequences for the company’s global operations. Regulatory approval or disapproval may have an immediate effect on the Alibaba stock price.

Are you interested in BABA shares? Make sure to create a free demo account on LiteForex! This way, you’ll be up to date on all popular stock index info, and the user-friendly interface will come in handy if you decide to start investing or stock trading.

Alibaba Stock Forecast FAQ

Price chart of BABA in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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