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#1,678.80 Lower Low extension is next for FX:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: Gold is Trading sideways on Hourly 4 chart for #2 main reasons. Technically because it was close to the main Hourly 4 chart Support of #1,765.80, which rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions, and Fundamentally (and most importantly) due to the (speculation on Bond Yields (# -1.87% on yesterday’s session candle) over Trade settlement and Fed’s battle against Inflation on ATH chart. I noted this issue last week (“retest of #1,780’s”) so Sellers should be getting their return within the Bollinger Bands once the trend appears. I do however expect the Price-action to attach the Selling pressure on the solid Daily chart Channel Down and break the #1,765.80 Support sooner or later which can extend the Price-action towards #1,740.80. The remaining correlations are Neutral so the consolidation is caused by the indecision candles on Bond Yields (followed by Bearish Gap fill which resulted as positive E.U. opening on Gold and is this Bullish set of candles, visible on the charts) and partially by the Intra-day consolidation on Usd-Jpy pair. The projected Support area should be reached within #2 sessions as I doubt that I will further Bullish developments, however – it is crucial to note that if Gold defends #1,765.80 on Hourly 4 chart for few more sessions, I cannot rule out the possibility of #1,800’s test. I am expecting Volatility – and visible Buying pressure from Yields on a parabolic downtrend (now on semi recovery). It is no coincidence that since the E.U. opening the Price-action has been consolidating within #10 point range. This is a critical level as it is near the Lower Low on the Daily chart . Purely on a Technical perspective, expect that Volatility will be more significant as U.S. session approaches.

Fundamental analysis: My indicators (and whole Technical and Fundamental configuration) is giving me mixed results and signals so it is best to remain without a position ahead of today’s session as capital preservation is equally important as Profitable call. Market reading is pointing that the Price-action can turn both ways under these circumstances. If one wishes to stay in the market until the market closing, take extreme caution with Bond Yields near Lower High extension and a divergent Moving Average. I will have more updates on Gold’s Short-term with today’s market closing, but I don’t doubt Gold’s Bearish underlying trend. Gold maxed the Support throughout last week so my calculations were spot on. Hourly 1 chart’s Bollinger bands also gave me #1,765.80 almost as the first Support, as current price is currently Trading close to #1,780’s. I assume that the Yields rally will be ranged in the next #2 sessions and the Price-action of Gold , based on Selling pressure from Bond Yields recovery will make Lower Low extension breach possibly around #1.765.80 towards #1.740.80, which can deliver decent opportunity for Sellers. These calculations are for my Short-term strategy for the next quarterly Monthly leg downwards which break #1.700.80 psychological barrier. Note also how Daily chart’s power indicators turned Neutral on exponential Sell calls at current levels. Before the Fed report, Gold stayed Neutral but managed to be ranged near Resistance zone , and then aggressive decline was delivered. Similar movement I am expecting shortly. Technically I had in mind that I should expect strong Support at either #1.770.80 or #1.765.80 pressure points. As I warned lately, I shouldn’t Trade on directional approach as Powell’s speech would bring turbulence. As Gold moves closer to the rate the Price-action will start sloping Lower while spiking down even more if the rate remains unchanged, and there hints for no further hikes in the near future. Market closing above #1,800.80 constitutes Buying continuation in #5 sessions range (less likely to occur).

Technical analysis: Gold continued the consolidation candles throughout yesterday’s U.S. session opening ahead of market closing, able to convert into Rising Wedge on Hourly 1 chart. Despite Daily chart recovery on Bond Yields, Gold remains High near the session High at #1,786.80. On the other hand, Gold failed to preserve its upside presence, forcing the Hourly 4 chart near its Channel Support (taken from the #1,770.80 Low). The break of the current Hourly 4 chart Resistance (now likely to offer stiff Resistance) has an initial upside of #1,800.80 (April #21 High) on the Daily timeframe (remember to compare historical values since most of the configurations will repeat since market digestion of Fundamental events is every time mostly the same). Ultimately, a retest further to the upper value of Resistance zone (#1,785.80 – #1,795.80) maximum till end of the week is surely an option, as January #5 – March #9 Selling sequence is seemingly reproducing. On January #5 fractal Gold engaged the decline, Price-action stabilized within (then) #1,831.80 belt, where Gold delivered even more serious decline of almost #200 points towards #1,678.80 (my current point of interest). My focus is on the already broken Support on the Hourly 4 chart, as I mentioned is favored, Targeting the #1,678.80 Lower Low extension which gives me hint that current Bearish bias is certainly sustainable. An added bonus would be Price-action testing #1,800.80 psychological barrier, delivering even stronger Selling signal at the retest, consequently identifying Sellers intent and also serving as a base to determine entry and risk levels. I am expecting #1,678.80 within #30 sessions.

My position: I am currently without a position, observing the Price-action. However, if #1,770.80 breaks and Yields continue the recovery, I may engage my Selling order, calling for #1,740.80 extension. #1,765.80 firm Support break will confirm my model and add to Seller’s confidence.

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