Fundamental analysis: My indicators (and whole Technical and Fundamental configuration) is giving me mixed results and signals so it is best to remain without a position ahead of today’s session as capital preservation is equally important as Profitable call. Market reading is pointing that the Price-action can turn both ways under these circumstances. If one wishes to stay in the market until the market closing, take extreme caution with Bond Yields near Lower High extension and a divergent Moving Average. I will have more updates on Gold’s Short-term with today’s market closing, but I don’t doubt Gold’s underlying trend. Gold maxed the Support throughout last week so my calculations were spot on. Hourly 1 chart’s also gave me #1,765.80 almost as the first Support, as current price is currently Trading close to #1,780’s. I assume that the Yields rally will be ranged in the next #2 sessions and the Price-action of Gold , based on Selling pressure from Bond Yields recovery will make Lower Low extension breach possibly around #1.765.80 towards #1.740.80, which can deliver decent opportunity for Sellers. These calculations are for my Short-term strategy for the next quarterly Monthly leg downwards which break #1.700.80 psychological barrier. Note also how Daily chart’s power indicators turned Neutral on exponential Sell calls at current levels. Before the Fed report, Gold stayed Neutral but managed to be ranged near , and then aggressive decline was delivered. Similar movement I am expecting shortly. Technically I had in mind that I should expect strong Support at either #1.770.80 or #1.765.80 pressure points. As I warned lately, I shouldn’t Trade on directional approach as Powell’s speech would bring turbulence. As Gold moves closer to the rate the Price-action will start sloping Lower while spiking down even more if the rate remains unchanged, and there hints for no further hikes in the near future. Market closing above #1,800.80 constitutes Buying continuation in #5 sessions range (less likely to occur).
Technical analysis: Gold continued the consolidation candles throughout yesterday’s U.S. session opening ahead of market closing, able to convert into on Hourly 1 chart. Despite recovery on Bond Yields, Gold remains High near the session High at #1,786.80. On the other hand, Gold failed to preserve its upside presence, forcing the Hourly 4 chart near its Channel Support (taken from the #1,770.80 Low). The break of the current Hourly 4 chart Resistance (now likely to offer stiff Resistance) has an initial upside of #1,800.80 (April #21 High) on the (remember to compare historical values since most of the configurations will repeat since market digestion of Fundamental events is every time mostly the same). Ultimately, a retest further to the upper value of (#1,785.80 – #1,795.80) maximum till end of the week is surely an option, as January #5 – March #9 Selling sequence is seemingly reproducing. On January #5 Gold engaged the decline, Price-action stabilized within (then) #1,831.80 belt, where Gold delivered even more serious decline of almost #200 points towards #1,678.80 (my current point of interest). My focus is on the already broken Support on the Hourly 4 chart, as I mentioned is favored, Targeting the #1,678.80 Lower Low extension which gives me hint that current bias is certainly sustainable. An added bonus would be Price-action testing #1,800.80 psychological barrier, delivering even stronger Selling signal at the retest, consequently identifying Sellers intent and also serving as a base to determine entry and risk levels. I am expecting #1,678.80 within #30 sessions.
My position: I am currently without a position, observing the Price-action. However, if #1,770.80 breaks and Yields continue the recovery, I may engage my Selling order, calling for #1,740.80 extension. #1,765.80 firm Support break will confirm my model and add to Seller’s confidence.
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