I’d like start by saying things in crypto market have not been going good lately in last couple of months as we all know and after the massive sell off that happened in quite short time (a week), many got wrecked and market hit was painful. After that we entered the 30/40k area, the area which at begging everyone was speculating about the break up or down from it, we got a V-shaped recovery at first which rejected and dumped to low 30s and at mean time most of alts dumped even more, but that was not enough for the sentiment around alts to change, many still were looking for long positions on alts believing they can rise higher than they already have at that moment, but that was not the case as the second leg up rejected as well as the third and fourth one. That made alts to suffer more as some fo them were ridiculously over-hyped like ETH Classic, a coin which is dead by any means but pumped beyond belief.
We all know who is the king in the crypto market and let’s be clear, after such dump happening to BTC , it was going to be difficult for the entire market to rally up when BTC clearly wasn’t at its best form. After all you need the king, the leader, to lead the way forward. So if BTC is not in form alts can’t do any better.
So now we are still seeing a lot of speculation about breaking up or down and we have not yet seen any. That makes me to think that we had a lot of orders and positions in this range getting stoped out or liquidate. I believe whales are having party in this range, they are enjoying messing with bulls and bears here, even for those of us who wait for confirmation to enter a trade. This range so far is a good place for whales to have their party in and I’m not sure if they’re done with their party yet or not, they enjoy taking money from all the new bloods and speculators in the market. Well one can position him/herself along side whales and enjoy the party, but must stay alert cause when whales open their mouths they can eat anything coming in their way as well.
Last week we started dumping again after a rise to 41k as many were looking for going long and just got a fake out, and the dump itself looks now it is fake out (we should wait more to see if we go further down or rally up). I think that the more we stay in this range the better it would be for BTC and the whole market, cause everyone is looking for a break up or down and when thats the case we might not get one until the sentiment of majority changes.
I said sentiment, let’s talk about it a bit more. until recently the sentiment around alts didn’t change significantly as I mentioned above, and thats not a good sign for rise after such sell off. Short to mid-term I think the focus must go into BTC again, I mean we need more money from retail and institutions to go to BTC , and thats a slow process, well it better be, because any quick massive rally up most of the times brings a quick massive dump like a dead cat bounce that I think no one wants, we all want BTC and alts to grow, but one must be patient, and position him/herself accordingly.
So I think the more BTC stays in this range the better, its just a matter of time cause I’m BTC long-term and by long-term I mean more that 3 – 4 years, but in short-term anything is possible and waiting for the right moment is the key here. If you are in from 10s or 20s you’re fine, if you’re in from 30s to 60s you should be clear about it with yourself, what was you main target before entering? and how long you wanted to wait for your target to be reached before entering? if you have those answers then you already know what to do.
But for those who are new and didn’t think about those questions and lack experience, you better start thinking about those questions cause anything can happen, and you better have a plan and manage your risk, so you can be here when the market heads higher again.
And for the final point, trading is kind of a zero-sum game, in order for one to gain profit another one must lose, its just how it works, many new people coming in at the top were needed for whales to lock in their profits, this happens all the time. It’s just a matter of time before we enter a new bull run and you should be ready to not be the that guy who is buying the top again and handing your money to others. I believe at the moment BTC can go either way, its not clear yet which direction it will go as I stated in my last idea (you can find the link to that at bottom of this post), we need more information and candles to print on the chart, but I say it again, if you are here long-term (at least 3 -4 years) you are just fine with buying at this point but if not you better wait for more information to come, as right now we are in the middle of the 30/40k range and when price is inside a range it’s better not to open any position at middle, wait to for the price to reach either side of the range and enter based on the info you have at that moment and I should note that short-term we are in down trend since couple of months ago and you better be cautious going long cause the trend is against you.
For me here, I will scalp in this range with the lowest risk possible and when I see a clear sign of break up or down I’m gonna open my swing trade and I will be posting about it when the time arrives.
So like most of you I’d like to see BTC rise higher and higher, but I know that it must be gradual growth to be sustainable long-term, the whole market clearly needs more money and more adaptation to head higher and that takes time, we need to see more people coming in with knowledge about crypto and belief about the value it adds to our life.
Have fun and trade safe.
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