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BTC: No looking back? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by ianrdouglas

I’m interested in contrary opinions, and contrary indications. But BTC looks strong to me, here on the 4hr chart, and I currently — and tentatively — expect this to continue and confirm on larger timeframes. I also expect alts to begin to feel these tailwinds, if indeed BTC is back on track.

1) Has reclaimed and is above all key EMAs.

2) Conversion baseline cross and above the Ichimoku cloud .

3) Holding above the 0.386 on a local Fibonacci. Hugging the line of the 3.0 on the macro Fibonacci. Both are positive signals of an uptrend.

4) BTC respecting an ascending channel so far.

5) If BTC breaks out from the bull flag channel, 60k+ is in view, which would put BTC above the 0.702 on the whole April correction, which would confirm in my view that this is not a retracement rally from a cycle top, but simply a correction along the way.

6) It’s looking increasingly likely that BTC is not returning to backtest 50k. The only way I could see that now happening is if the bull flag BTC is currently printing breaks to the downside. Then we might see a H&S pattern form, which would put 50k back in view. Not impossible, but it would necessitate strong and sustained sell pressure that would need to play out over one week at least.

7) Despite BTC having printed a long legged doji candle on the monthly for April, the 21 weekly EMA wasn’t broken, or even tapped. April may signal the top is close, but May could surge to a new ATH .

8) Contrary forces: the DXY is currently experiencing a fairly strong bounce from 90.427 to 91.297 currently. But the US government doesn’t appear particularly concerned with maintaining dollar strength, so this could be a local bounce that is reversed.

Feel free to comment.

Particularly interested to hear from those who see indications of more downside potential.

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