Fundamental analysis: Gold will continue to fall with every Weekly candle. Weekly chart is on a strong Support levels and if those got invalidated, I will be looking to complete and follow full oscillation towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. It should be no surprise that Gold is Trading around its #1,750’s ahead of the upcoming Fundamental events. Gold is still priced just above the and the upside potential seems strongly limited and less possible. In next few sessions I expect Full domination. Regarding today’s session, I cannot rule out #8 Hour correction towards #1,780’s , as Yields are near Higher Low configuration, but all in all, Buying is strongly limited both on Short and Long-term. Today’s market sentiment offers me no patterns to Trade by.
Technical analysis: As I announced possible Buying correction on Gold , Price-action has recovered half of the opening losses on the U.S. session opening as Yields are taking big Daily candle hit. However the rise is not proportional as global Stock markets and are still on High levels. This leads me to believe that on the Short-term, there is a stronger connection of Gold to Bond Yields, rather than DX , so I will keep an eye for pressure zones on Bond Yields. Technically the is still a Channel Down on it’s Lower Low, but the Support has to break as last time it provided rejection twice. I am expecting strong move to take place throughout Friday’s session or late U.S. session today (ahead of NFP). Despite the Fundamental outcome on announcements last week, Gold continues to Trade near the #3-Month Low’s. This indicates that last week’s aggressive Buy-off on Bond Yields was largely a pre-pricing of those disastrous NFP numbers. What’s obvious, as the current week comes to a close, is that the consolidation since yesterday’s session is just above the Daily (#1,751.80) which lifts the probabilities for an aggressive Selling sequence ahead, especially as Weekly remains marginally . Interestingly, the Weekly candle is flat almost on zero percent. I remain fully on the Short and Long-term, my Technical background shows some signs (Inverted pattern) but those will be invalidated once the Support configuration is broken and Selling bias formed on Hourly 4 chart. Price-action also manages to keep the High levels despite the rise on DX and very sharp uptrend on Usd-Jpy . Especially the fact that Usd-Jpy broke it’s Resistance, makes Gold very on the Short-term, with it’s own having regained complete status on the Long-term for the first time since February #28. On the Short-term though, the Price-action is testing the inner and may require to have small pullback in order to accumulate more Selling pressure to convincingly break #1,751.80 this time. As soon as the new market dynamics, post Fed, find their prior balance, fair Technical Price of Gold would be near #1,727.80 Targets remain #1,751.89 and #1,727.80 in continuation, if #1,766.80 is broken.
Since I had many inquiries regarding Basel #3 outcome, my estimation is that the outcome will have less or no impact on current configuration on Gold , and is weak pointer of Gold’s direction, best to be ignored.
My position: Since I am on #14 Profits run and #2 Stop-loss hits regarding May – June , I won’t rush onto new opportunity which can endanger my capital. Since Buying is surely out of question, I will wait for decent opportunity to Sell Gold . That opportunity awaits / exists near #1,766.80 – #1,759.80 belt, of course with Bond Yields confirmation (which should be above Lower High, for me to take action). I suggest Traders with small margins to keep away from the markets for #2 sessions.
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