Market

cattle pushing tentatively higher. for CME:LEQ2021 by emehoke

cattle are moseying upward. looking for continuation out of a bull flag with trendline support.

I like the patterns I see here so I will plan to make an overly-complicated Elliot wave translation of what I’m seeing sometime within the next 10 hours.

Regarding seasonality , I can’t remember any good details on seasonality , but I can remember reading two pages on this topic in a book like 3 years ago, but I can’t remember what was on the pages. I remember a little bit though now that I’m asking for recall. There’s like a 3 part life cycle as far as markets are concerned. There is a baby stage, where they just kind of count the numbers of possible cattle for the months ahead.. then a maturation stage, where some of the cattle are big enough to go to market, and some are sent back into the feeder for more growing, then there’s the slaughtering stage, where all the large cattle get shipped out. There is a period of the year generally when they are contributing more attention to the growth of cattle than other times of the year, and the count of these numbers maybe could be used to predict shortages or surpluses. I would guess that’s spring and summer, but I’m not certain. I am from Wisconsin so it’s a little shameful I don’t know this. Then obviously the price of raising cattle is dependent on the price of feeding them so if wheat / corn is higher then it costs more to feed them. I’m not sure if the result is farmers feed 900 cattle instead of the regular 1000 or if they just eat the cost and just feed as many cattle as they can regardless of feed prices. That assumption also relies on farmers following strict rule based feeding schedules, which I think they do pretty well if they are running big farms. But you never know.

I could be getting the stages of cattle mixed up with the stages for hogs. My brain wants to lump them together , but I’m also am finding an asterisk so I think there are significant differences that I’m unaware of. Probably better to do your own research. You can maybe tell I’m more of a price action oriented person.

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