The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher.
For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank.
Furthermore, the increased in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors.
JPY, CHF & USD:
What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling.
Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example.
After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens).
In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market.
GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections.
Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind.
Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour.
Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week.
For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU.
However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or differentials or compared that from a normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind.
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