Litecoin and the Cycle End Rally for BITFINEX:LTCUSD by VictorCobra

It’s been a little while since I’ve posted a written analysis on the market. I’ve been working on a lot of things, mostly related to the creative arts and social work (I’m still in my master’s program). I appeared recently on my friend’s podcast, so I’ll be linking that in my status when it’s ready.

In any case, the last time I wrote about Litecoin, it was still in the local downtrend. Since then, it’s broken out and tested the important zone between $220 and $250. Here’s the analysis:

If you read that post, you can also see where I had previously used Litecoin to gauge overall market upside potential and momentum. I also suggested that when Litecoin reaches a much higher level against Ethereum , that can be the sign of a market cycle peak. Since LTC tends to lag behind a little bit, the moments where it starts to show hidden signs of strength can be an interesting bellwether for the cryptocurrency market. Here’s the LTC/ BTC chart, showing an unusual fulcrum bottom formation (something rather rare). There is potential for the ratio to head towards the long term downtrend, should the market cycle have a little gas left in the tank.

I’m using the Bitfinex chart for the USD pair because it has a longer price history for Litecoin. While the channel on my Coinbase chart (previous analysis) still exists here, it’s interesting to speculate where Litecoin could end up, if we have yet to see the final leg of this current bullish cycle. We also don’t know if “cycles” will necessarily play out the same way as before….but based on sentiment and how some newer projects keep hitting new all-time highs tells me this space still has a while to go before it fully matures. So it’s fairly likely we’ll see another large market crash and longer period of stagnation at some point in the not so distant future. The top posts on Reddit right now tell me a lot of people are taking their gains for granted, and euphoria is really palpable. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Litecoin lumber along with relatively low sentiment. This tells me it would be a wise move for me to sell the next market rally, particularly if Bitcoin breaks ATH . Targets are shown on my chart, showing that it could be quite profitable. Supports are outlined as well. On the bearish side, if Litecoin is to remain relevant at all it should not really go below $60 again.

The theory presented in this chart is that Litecoin will reach its top roughly when Bitcoin does the same (along with the rest of the market). It should be a good indication as to when we could see the next big downturn. I first bought LTC at $32 in early 2019, traded out of it in June of that year, and have re-accumulated a stack 4 times larger than I had before. For me, this is an experiment in portfolio management and cycle theory. I may continue to be wrong about Litecoin. However, the little chikun that could has gotten some positive news recently: smart contracts, stablecoins, and NFT’s will be available on the Litecoin network. In addition to that, the MimbleWimble code should be ready by year’s end, bringing the option of privacy, making Litecoin fungible (unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum ).

Let’s see! This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra

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