Market

NQ – Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 – 14367 for CME_MINI:NQ1! by HK_L61

Price provided further Information the last few days.

We have been patiently waiting for developments in the

Market Structures to unfold .

We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL

@ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation.

Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated.

SO far, SO good – this is always subject to change. We never

tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile

gyrations.

_____________________________________________________

Prior to the beginning – I would point out the NQ has given back

100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain

on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day – Volumes Support the

SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a

larger and continuing Distribution.

As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling

short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers

remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the

Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone.

We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions

we will discuss this in detail.

This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and

to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is

more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX .

These Price actions and divergences are important between

Indexes as the rotation trades continue.

Friday Macro Data:

08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep)

08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep)

08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep)

08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep)

08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)

10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug)

13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions
15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions

_____________________________________________________

Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway.

It failed yesterday, it is, however – Friday. Which suggests the

potential for more extreme Price action is on deck.

We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes:

The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move

Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position.

We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience…

and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because

it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines

in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range

while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000.


Gap and Don’t Look Back

Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher

back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it

will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in

excess.

Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment

is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real

loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and

declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it.

According to the Bulls – it’s back to all-time highs.

This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many

Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time.



Gap to Fill to Range into Break

It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a

large range for weeks to a month into November?

It would require a number of conditions – the 21/34/50EMAs would need to

begin to turn up on Larger TF’s to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators

would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don’t the WEEKLY

TF.

The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between

21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight.

Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down.

We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the

draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger

Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367.

Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of

this Retracement.



Gap and Trap to Fail

IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance.

The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many

over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding

further Energy for downside Momentum as the “Oh Sh_t” point of recognition

becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks… they buy the

Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only

compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd

with bravado as they chase their averages lower… until the losses compound

to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows.

We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make

all sorts of “pronouncements” Nasdaq 18K”, “Dow 37K”, “ES 5000” – Eggo’s in

the toaster… is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling

bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size… the BUll is Back Baby~!

This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any

kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile.

In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete

5/5. The DG’s will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons

learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations.

“I’m a winner~!”

In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper

end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for

Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter.

Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to.

We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367.

Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers.

More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday… to determine how the underlying

Structure is shaping up.

_____________________________________________________

So here’s that word again – Patience

Price will tell us everything we need to know.

Price provided further Information the last few days.

We have been patiently waiting for developments in the

Market Structures to unfold .

We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL

@ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation.

Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated.

SO far, SO good – this is always subject to change. We never

tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile

gyrations.

_____________________________________________________

Prior to the beginning – I would point out the NQ has given back

100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain

on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day – Volumes Support the

SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a

larger and continuing Distribution.

As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling

short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers

remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the

Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone.

We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions

we will discuss this in detail.

This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and

to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is

more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX .

These Price actions and divergences are important between

Indexes as the rotation trades continue.

Friday Macro Data:

08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep)

08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep)

08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)

08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep)

08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep)

08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)

10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug)

13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions
15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions

15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions

_____________________________________________________

Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway.

It failed yesterday, it is, however – Friday. Which suggests the

potential for more extreme Price action is on deck.

We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes:

The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move

Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position.

We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience…

and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because

it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines

in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range

while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000.


Gap and Don’t Look Back

Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher

back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it

will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in

excess.

Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment

is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real

loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and

declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it.

According to the Bulls – it’s back to all-time highs.

This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many

Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time.



Gap to Fill to Range into Break

It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a

large range for weeks to a month into November?

It would require a number of conditions – the 21/34/50EMAs would need to

begin to turn up on Larger TF’s to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators

would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don’t the WEEKLY

TF.

The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between

21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight.

Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down.

We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the

draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger

Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367.

Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of

this Retracement.



Gap and Trap to Fail

IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance.

The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many

over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding

further Energy for downside Momentum as the “Oh Sh_t” point of recognition

becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks… they buy the

Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only

compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd

with bravado as they chase their averages lower… until the losses compound

to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows.

We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make

all sorts of “pronouncements” Nasdaq 18K”, “Dow 37K”, “ES 5000” – Eggo’s in

the toaster… is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling

bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size… the BUll is Back Baby~!

This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any

kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile.

In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete

5/5. The DG’s will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons

learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations.

“I’m a winner~!”

In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper

end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for

Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter.

Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to.

We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367.

Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers.

More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday… to determine how the underlying

Structure is shaping up.

_____________________________________________________

So here’s that word again – Patience

Price will inform us of what we need to know.

Patience.

_____________________________________________________

My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after

another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs.

This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982…

The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks.

The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K.

We caught the easy $ on our projected decline… Hanging on to

it here and giving it time to resolve… is wise IMHO.

There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead.

They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back

and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you.

The VIX and VXN – the levels are in prior commentary…

This will be today’s only update as more information needs to be

observed for Price.

I’ll leave you with, what else… Patience.

Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend.

HK

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