The S&P is likely to rally into Friday and then fall sharply in the following week. A low is likely on the 21st. The short-term outlook is bullish. The put/call ratio for the SPY is as high as it was at the July 19 low, a sign of excessive pessimism. In addition, the 10-day moving average of breadth has fallen sharply to 0, so it is not overbought as it was last week. This week, options expiration week (OPEX) week in September has not been strong, and post-OPEX week (the 20th through the 24th) has been decidedly bearish as we can see in the histogram below. The next S&P projected turning point is a strong one on the 21st. This date is near the autumn equinox which has tended to be a turning point in markets, especially currencies. In addition, the 17th tends to be the high point in the month of September followed by the weakest 10-day period in the year.
S&P 500 in Post-OPEX Week in the Month of September from 1985
The Marathon Petroleum weekly cycle tops on September 19th and can be sold short on Friday. All three short and all three long signals have been profitable in the last year. The daily and the monthly cycles also are in decline. September has been a weak month for this stock. It has closed on the downside in nine of the last eleven years. The period from the 17th through the 23rd has been the weakest interval in the month. The 22nd has been the most bearish day of the month. The share price is due to fall closer to $50 by the end of this month.
SL Green Realty is likely to decline. The weekly cycle tops on the 14th and falls through the month. The period from the 16th through the 24th has been the weakest period in this month. The stock is likely to fall closer to $62 by the end of the month.
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