In terms of the similarities between now and 2017, there are some critical parallels, the first of which is the relationship between BTC prices and the mining reward halvings. Each time the mining reward halves, it introduces new scarcity to Bitcoin’s supply.
The second halving was in July 2016, and within 18 months, Bitcoin had climbed around 3,900%, rising from $500 to a high of $20,000 before crashing. The third halving was in May 2020 when BTC was trading around $9,000. Nine months later, Bitcoin was able to reach a new all-time high at around $62,000, gaining 560% in the process.
In the same period following the 2016 halving, the gains were significantly less in percentage terms, with BTC having risen around 150% by April 2017. If the markets follow the same pattern, they will witness even more epic increases followed by a sharp crash. Of course, such price movements after a halving only apply to Bitcoin . But where BTC goes, the rest of the markets tend to follow.
Same… but different?
Despite the similarities, there are also many differences between the crypto markets now compared to 2017, mainly relating to an advanced state of maturity. Four years ago, crypto was entirely the preserve of individual retail speculators. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Simon Kim, CEO of crypto venture fund Hashed, said that the “market is running on a completely different fundamental,” adding:
“Firstly, various DeFi projects are creating value based on a clear business model. Secondly, we’re seeing record active investment by institutional investors, and finally, various on-ramps and off-ramps including not only PayPal and Visa but also large banks, are now emerging.”
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