As I write this, the Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are neck and neck in Game 2. It’s half time, and the Clips trail the Suns by a point 47-48.
It’s hard to believe that the Phoenix Suns are now just a hair behind the favorites on the NBA Playoffs odds by PointsBet to win the 2021 NBA Finals.
NBA Futures Odds as of Tuesday Night
- Milwaukee Bucks +105
- Phoenix Suns +150
- Los Angeles Clippers +800
- Atlanta Hawks +1100
I’m mean, honestly, if you were to pick the Phoneix Suns and Atlanta Hawks to be two of the last four teams standing during the beginning of the season, I would have told you to go get your head checked. Ok, not really. We knew they would be good teams, but I didn’t think they would survive the playoff gauntlet.
Conference Finals Series Prices
The Milwaukee Bucks are significant favorites over the Atlanta Hawks, with the series still yet to start. Game 1 shows the Bucks as 7.5-point home favorites over the Hawks.
- Milwaukee Bucks -500 -500
- Atlanta Hawks +350 +350
- Phoenix Suns -500 -225 (open)
- Los Angeles Clippers +350 +185 (open)
Over on the left coast, the Suns opened as moderate favorites on the series, but after taking game one, money poured in, and they moved to -500. Now the line is too chalky to touch. That said, we could see it even out if the Clippers take Game 2 tonight.
Critical Stats for Eastern Conference Finals Game 1
Here is why you see such a big point spread. When it comes to the ATL Hawks’ away offense versus the Milwaukee bucks home offense, the Bucks put up a bit over eight points per game more than the Hawks. 119.17 to 111.05. It’s the No. 2 home offense in the league against the No.18 away offense. That said, they have comparable home vs. away defenses. Both rank at No. 15, though the Bucks allow almost two points less per game at 110.83 to 112.23 for the Hawks. So the Hawks give up 1.4 points more and score 8.12 fewer points. That means we have a possible margin of 9.16 in favor of Milwaukee.
Furthermore, Milwaukee has won two of the last three meetings by an average margin of 6 points and eight of the last ten against the Hawks with an average score of 123.8 to 111.9. That said, the Hawks did get the best of the Bucks in their most recent affair, back on April 25th. They beat the Bucks 111 to 104 and covered big time as six-point dogs.
I believe that the Bucks get the win and win the series. After all, Atlanta is 0-7 on the road against the Bucks. But I do think the Hawks cover in Game 1. Over Atlanta’s last 14 games, they have covered the point spread ten times, and they are particularly good at getting backdoor covers against Milwaukee. Over the last 18 times these two teams have clashed; the Hawks have covered 12 times. They love upsetting Bucks backers, and they’ll do it again in Game 1.
As for the series, this one is already written in the history books. The Bucks are going to the NBA Finals.
However, when it comes to Phoenix and LA, you can’t count out Kawhi … unless he’s out like he is in Game 2. But hey, CP3 is out for the Suns, so even Steven, right? This series is far away from a foregone conclusion.
There isn’t much better of a matchup to be had. The Suns score 114.82 on average, while the Clips score 114.20. On defense, the Clips allow 108.8 against the Suns 108.47. Even their home vs. away when the Clips are in LA is the No. 8 home D against the No. 8 away offense. This one is lining up to go all seven games, even if the Suns go up 2-0.
Stay tuned because the NBA playoffs are just heating up!