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Giants vs. Falcons odds, analysis and predictions for all Week 3 NFL games

Eli Manning and Matt Ryan will cross paths again on Sunday at MetLife Stadium, and the New York Giants are hoping things go as well for them as they did on Jan. 8, 2012, when they defeated Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, 24-2, in the NFC wild-card game.

Manning was called for intentional grounding in the end zone, giving Atlanta a safety and a 2-0 lead, but then threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns to send the Giants on their way to their Super Bowl XLVI championship.

Ryan is 36, six years older than Manning was in that meeting, and he’s still quarterbacking the Falcons as they invade the Meadowlands on Eli Manning jersey retirement day. Both teams are desperate at 0-2 and coming off near-misses.

The Giants lost, 30-29, in Washington on Thursday of Week 2 on a Dustin Hopkins second-chance field goal after his miss was nullified by a disputed offside penalty. Atlanta fell, 48-25, to the defending champs in Tampa, but that game was 28-25 midway through the fourth quarter. Ryan went 35-of-46 for 300 yards before the Buccaneers’ Mike Edwards made two pick-sixes.

The Giants have an edge because of the extra rest, as they are 10-1-1 against the spread in their past 12 games following a Thursday nighter, per VSiN. But the scary stat is 75.6 percent — that’s the combined completion percentage the Giants defense has allowed to Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke. If that doesn’t improve drastically, Ryan can get his long-awaited revenge and make sure halftime is the only thing Giants fans will want to remember.

The pick: Falcons, +2.5.

Matt Ryan
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New York Jets (+10) over DENVER BRONCOS

This game has both the highest point spread and lowest Over/Under on the board. That leads you to the underdog, because if total points are expected to be low, it figures to be harder for the favorite to cover a large number. The Jets’ offense wasn’t completely bad last week. Zach Wilson gave the game away with four interceptions, but they did rush for 152 yards on 4.9 yards per carry, and the pass protection was better, at least in the first half. At 2-0 with no urgency, I can’t justify laying double digits with Denver here.

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Cardinals were sliced and diced by the Vikings last week, but held on for the win thanks to a missed field goal. That same defense terrorized the Titans the week before and should give Trevor Lawrence problems.

Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
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Baltimore Ravens (-8) over DETROIT LIONS

I usually grab more than a touchdown at home, but can’t see the Lions, on short rest, stopping the Ravens’ offense even a little. Lamar Jackson will hit some downfield passes against a secondary missing its top two corners, and then the meat-grinder running game will steal the Lions’ will.

Chicago Bears (+7) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Justin Fields gets the start and figures to give the Chicago offense a little more juice than it was getting from Andy Dalton. The Bears’ D is coming off a strong showing against Cincinnati, and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski might not want to put a nicked-up Baker Mayfield in harm’s way too many times against it.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

First thought is that the Steelers are not going to lose in back-to-back weeks at Heinz. Ben Roethlisberger is 24-8 straight up versus the Bengals, but he and a lot of key defensive players are banged up, and even his small spread could end up mattering in a close one.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-5.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Off a big win at Seattle, the Titans have some making up to do with their fans who had to sit through the 38-13 loss to Arizona in the home opener. Not interested in backing Jacob Eason, Brett Hundley … or Carson Wentz on two sore ankles.

Los Angeles Chargers (+7) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Psst. Have you heard the Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 regular-season games? The Chargers have averaged just 18.5 ppg against Washington and Dallas, but should have more success against a K.C. defense that gave up 481 yards to the Ravens.

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum points out that road underdogs of +6 or less are 9-1 ATS this season. Saints followed a 38-3 rout of the Packers with a 26-7 dud at Carolina, but the line has moved in their favor despite heavy public money on the Patriots with a low spread.

BUFFALO BILLS (-8) over Washington Football Team

This is similar situation to the Titans game, in which the favorite is coming off a win and looking to make amends for a home-opener dud. With respect to the WFT defense, it’s hard to get behind Taylor Heinicke in this venue when he has completed just one pass in his career on the road.

Miami Dolphins (+4) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

How do you take Miami coming off a 35-0 drubbing, traveling long distance, as an outdoor grass team playing indoors on turf and using a backup quarterback (Jacoby Brissett)? See Saints and Titans to get an idea of how things can change in the NFL from one week to another.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1.5) over Seattle Seahawks

The total for this game is 55.5 after the Vikings gained 414 yards and gave up 474 versus the Cardinals and the Seahawks gave up 532 yards to the Titans. Minnesota has the urgency edge because of an 0-2 record.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (+1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Looking for Aaron Donald and his cohorts to make life a little more difficult for Tom Brady, who actually took a few hits from the Falcons last week.

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Another interesting tidbit from VSiN’s Appelbaum — teams making their home debut in Week 3 are 13-30 ATS in those games in the past decade. That trend applies to this game, Jets-Broncos and the Monday-nighter. Another reason to fade the 49ers is their cluster of injuries at running back.

Monday

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys have a lengthy injury list that includes DE DeMarcus Lawrence on IR, OT La’el Collins out and top WR Amari Cooper questionable with a rib injury. Eagles have been (way) up and down in first two weeks. Could get an outright ’dog win here.

Best bets: Packers, Ravens, Eagles.
Lock of the week: Packers (Locks 0-2 in 2021).
Last week: 10-6 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
Thursday: Texans (L).

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