Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 4 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.
All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 27, rounded to the nearest whole number.
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NFL Week 4 Implied Team Totals
|Team||Implied Team Total||Opponent||Location||Spread||Over/Under|
NFL Week 4 Projected Points Analysis
Highest Week 4 Implied Totals
After two weeks, you could hear whispers in some circles that the Bills offense had peaked in 2020 and wouldn’t hit those same highs in 2021. The team opened with a loss to Pittsburgh, but even a wipeout win over Miami came courtesy of three turnovers. The vaunted offense did not perform particularly efficiently or prolifically.
Those concerns may quiet some after a 43-point show against Washington’s hyped but underperforming defense. The Bills gained 8.2 YPA through the air.
Now, they get a Houston team reeling, with a massive spread of separating them. Josh Allen and Co. should have another big week.
The Rams showed their offense is for real as they passed all over the Bucs for 8.5 YPA. Now, they get to face a Cardinals defense that took it on the chin from the Vikes in Week 2 but did have success against a solid offense in Tennessee. LA’s offensive line doesn’t have the holes the Titans do that allowed the Cardinals pass rush to have a hey day. Watch for offensive fireworks here.
Speaking of the Rams, they managed to corral a Bucs offense that had previously tossed the rock all over the field at will. Don’t let Tom Brady’s stat line fool you as the team managed just 17 points before garbage time.
Has the market downgraded this unit after they struggled against the first real defense they faced?
Lowest Week 4 Implied Totals
On the opposite end of the spectrum from the Bills, it comes as little surprise given the line that the market projects the Texans as the lowest-scoring team this week. Only the Jets in Week 3 have gotten a lower projection — and they wound up on the business end of a shutout.
The Texans looked like they had a competent offense with Tyrod Taylor. Injury replacement Davis Mills managed to stay out of the turnover column but his 151 net yards on 28 attempts won’t cut it going forward. Only Brandin Cooks managed to stay relevant for fantasy and prop over players.
Still, the surprising Panthers D was a tough assignment. Perhaps better things lie ahead.
The most surprising and notable inclusion here: the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hope existed in some corners that a retooled offensive line could give Ben Roethlisberger enough time to distribute the ball to a talented group of receivers, not to mention newly drafted talents RB Najee Harris and TE Pat Freiermuth.
Instead, Roethlisberger has looked like a bottom-five starter so far. He has put up a putrid 35.7 QBR with 5.55 net yards per attempt. Poorly regarded Bengals and Raiders defenses put the clamps on him with ease the past two weeks. If his true talent level has really plummeted like this, the Steelers should probably start taking a hard look at the free agency and trade markets.
Other Notable Team Totals
Did you have to do a double-take when looking toward the top of that board? Yes, that’s the Bengals with one of the highest implied team totals.
Of course, facing the Jaguars provides quite the boost to one’s offense. The Jags actually had an interesting day defensively against Arizona in Week 3 as they forced five punts. But it mostly came from shutting down the Cards’ rushing offense, including Kyler Murray scrambles.
Joe Burrow will attack through the air as long as the coaching staff doesn’t get stubborn. The Jags have allowed a horrific nine yards per pass so far.
How can a team that just passed for 1 net yard have an implied total of 23? That’s a difficult question to answer as Bears fans had to walk away incredibly disappointed in the early Justin Fields returns. The offense is fighting through a brutal combination of awful line play and an indecisive rookie QB. Myles Garrett and the Browns had a party in tallying 9 sacks.
The coaching staff must make adjustments in a hurry or the Bears will find themselves lower than this in the coming weeks.